SONACOMS - Sona BLW Precision Forgings Limited Share Price

Management's outlook for Sona Comstar indicates a cautious but optimistic view, anticipating recovery from recent challenges. The company experienced a particularly tough Q1 FY26, marked as its worst since the IPO, largely due to the convergence of four temporary factors affecting revenue recognition and demand.

1. The change in supply terms with an EV customer in Europe delayed revenue recognition by an additional 60 days, shifting expected revenues from Q1 to Q2.
2. A significant global customer's sales decline due to lower demand has impacted sales volumes, although management expects recovery initiatives to boost future demand.
3. The halt of heavy rare earth magnets supply from China has constrained production of EV traction motors. However, alternatives are being pursued, and management expects progress soon regarding this supply issue.
4. Frequent changes in US tariffs caused OEMs and Tier 1 customers to limit procurement and maintain lower inventory levels, a scenario they believe is not sustainable and should resolve soon.

Despite these challenges, management reports the highest-ever order book of Rs.262 billion, including a significant new order of over Rs.1,500 crores for an upcoming EV platform, and another order worth Rs.260 crores for electric three-wheelers. They recently completed the acquisition of a railway business integrated from June 1, compensating for some revenue losses in other sectors.

Moving forward, management expects improvements in revenue as temporary issues dissipate. They anticipate the BEV revenue share to rise back above the current 28% as new programs ramp up, asserting that many of the challenges faced should stabilize in the upcoming quarters. The confidence in the order book reflects a positive trajectory for overall growth in the automotive and electrification sectors.

1. Question: "What has been the discussion with the customer in terms of our ability to pass on or absorb tariffs, and how are we placed versus our peers?"

   Answer: "Tariffs for the automotive sector have been 25% since early April. We've observed a potential revenue impact of 3-4%, though it takes 12-18 months to be confirmed. Our plans for Mexico are unchanged; they pertain to specific parts. There's a government support scheme to help OEMs absorb costs. Overall, not much has changed in our ability to manage tariffs."

2. Question: "Will it be a situation where we will be exporting differential gears from India to China and then shift manufacturing over time?"

   Answer: "Initially, we will supply differential housings and parts to China; differential gears won't be produced there in the near term. Eventually, we may export gears for assembly, but not initially."

3. Question: "What is the growth roadmap for the railway business?"

   Answer: "We expect growth in our railway segment due to strong technology barriers and market leadership in brake systems. We're also exploring new products for growth in the next five years, particularly with increased rolling stock production, as noted in government projections."

4. Question: "Can you clarify the status on traction motors given the rare earth shortages and new orders?"

   Answer: "We faced real challenges with heavy rare earth magnets but are back on track with light rare earth magnet solutions. Upcoming launches should proceed in 2-3 quarters, and we are evaluating alternative suppliers to ensure performance."

5. Question: "What is the order book for the new China JV and the expected revenue contribution?"

   Answer: "It's premature to discuss revenue or order book specifics since we're still finalizing agreements. Initially, we focus on equipment supply like differential housings and may move to full assembly as we progress."

6. Question: "How has the market outlook changed for us in terms of electric vehicle orders?"

   Answer: "Despite prior delays, we anticipate strong EV launch programs in the next three years, with several significant opportunities. The magnet issue may delay some initial programs, but larger orders are expected from Q4 this fiscal year."